Understanding the Pervasive Spread of Malignant Conflict: A Dynamical Systems Perspective.

Traditionally, the destructiveness of long-term conflicts have been assessed either by measuring their intensity in quantitative terms, which typically includes counting the number, types, and magnitude of bombing attacks, battles, fatalities, injuries, population displacement, etc. (e.g. Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research), their temporal scope or how long they persist (e.g. UPPSALA Conflict Data Program), or by assessing the direct consequences of conflicts, which entails the examination of the physical and psychological welfare of those caught up in the dynamics of conflict, and the damage to the social, political, economical, and educational infrastructure of the society (United Nations OCHA reports). However, in describing the basic nature of long-term intractable conflicts, Zartman (2005) concluded that “intractability is a dynamic, self-reinforcing condition; digging an ever-deepening hole for itself and feeding itself like a vortex” (p. 55). In other words, the longer violent conflicts persist, the more they spread into the fabric of societies, and therefore the longer they last. The observation that destructive conflicts have a tendency to spread and that this increase in their range prolongs and sustains their negative effects has been made by various conflict scholars (Rouhana & Bar-Tal, 1998; Kriesberg, 2005; Zartman, 2005; Gray, Coleman, Putnam, 2007; Wessels, 2007). However, despite decades of research dedicated to the study of protracted conflict dynamics, to date, little is known about the basic mechanisms which account for the spreading of conflict, or the conditions which make it more or less likely to occur. In fact, other than anecdotal accounts, there has been little or no scholarship directly conceptualizing and investigating the conditions and processes involved in conflicts becoming more pervasive. This project will attempt to address this gap in the literature.